South Africa’s political landscape is undergoing a significant shift as the country prepares for the 2024 elections1. The ruling African National Congress (ANC), which has dominated the political scene for decades, could lose its majority for the first time1.
The ANC’s potential loss of parliamentary majority opens doors for other parties. South Africa’s opposition parties are poised to seize this opportunity by offering better deals to ANC supporters1. This could lead to a more debatable and contestable political environment in South Africa1.
However, no opposition party has yet managed to profit from the ANC’s losses by gaining votes and positioning itself as a political alternative2. Many people who were eligible to vote did not register for the elections, or else abstained2. The largest opposition party, the Democratic Alliance (DA), performed worse than in the 2016 local elections, gaining barely 22 percent of aggregate votes2. Interestingly a new party has found its foot in the election landscape. Supported by the former President the newly established uMkhonto Wesizwe is the latest player in the field though it is made up of a lot of political veterans most of them former ANC influential cadres,
The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), whose radical rhetoric positions them as the archetypal protest party, climbed two percentage points to 10.3 percent – less than some had expected2. Several smaller parties registered (regional) successes2.
Over the last two decades, the government of South Africa has slowly but steadily moved away from full democracy toward a hybrid regime3. This has coincided with sub-structural shifts in basic civil liberties, functioning of governance, freedom of the judiciary, participation in politics, and suppression of opposition3.
Despite these challenges, progress is slowly being made on reforms2. The party system has also become increasingly differentiated since the local elections in early November2.
The current political dynamics of South Africa are undergoing major transformations. The potential end of ANC dominance could usher in a new era of coalition politics and increased political debate. However, the path to this new political landscape is fraught with challenges and uncertainties.